Nick Allen in Los Angeles Published: 6:03PM GMT 05 March 2010
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The Hurt Locker is prime to take majority appropriate design 
Avatar expected to be a close contender Photo: REUTERS 
Inglourious Basterds could be a concede leader Film industry insiders disagree that it is probable for a movie to win the Oscar even if it doesn"t have the majority initial welfare votes, augmenting the possibility of a concede welfare winning.
It equates to that nonetheless Avatar, the scholarship novella epic, and The Hurt Locker, the Iraq fight film, are transparent corner favourites Quentin Tarantino"s "Inglourious Basterds" or "Up in the Air" starring George Clooney could hide by to win.
Oscars 2010: contingency on majority appropriate movie Oscars 2010: what creates a winner? Bomb ordering consultant claims makers of The Hurt Locker stole his story Ready for the Oscars The Hurt Locker upsets veterans Baftas 2009: Slumdog Millionaire nominated for eleven awards as Oscars movement buildsFor the initial time in 6 decades there will be 10 nominations in the majority appropriate design category, instead of the common five.
This new "preferential voting" system, that is at large used in Australian domestic elections, requires judges to arrange all 10 drive-in theatre in sequence of preference.
If no movie wins 51 per cent in the initial turn the one with the slightest await is separated and the votes are allocated to second choices. The routine continues until one emerges as the transparent winner.
Detractors contend that the complement has led to "ugly" campaigning and it has unleashed twice the volume of behind-the-scenes lobbying in the run-up to Sunday"s awards ceremony.
Nicholas Chartier, one of the producers of The Hurt Locker has been barred from the eventuality after promulgation an email asking judges to arrange his movie initial and Avatar at series 10.
Anne Thompson, the former Variety emissary editor and successful Hollywood blogger said: "The campaigning has got ugly, the choosing by casting votes is confusing.
"One thing you"ve got to give the Academy is that all the old tea leaves we used to envision a leader are out the window. Really, any one could win."
Steven Zeitchik at the LA Times warned that new Oscar manners could meant a quarrelsome win, suggestive of the Bush Gore presidential election.
He said: "A movie could lift a Bush vs. Gore win majority appropriate design notwithstanding not removing the majority first-place votes. But, given the academy guarantees a tip ballot, couple of people would ever know."
He pronounced bargain the new complement was similar to "attempting to assimilate the complement can infrequently feel a small similar to perplexing to boundless the secrets of cold fusion".
The new choosing by casting votes complement was introduced in an try to progress radio ratings, attracting viewers by showcasing 10 films.
Television observation total for the Oscars have evaporated given 1998 when 55 million watched Titanic win majority appropriate picture. A decade later, in 2008, they reached a underside of 32 million.
That has had a abrasive outcome on promotion income and this year a 30-second container costs only $1.4 million (�930,000) down from 1.7 million (�1.13 million) dual years ago.
A assured Tarantino said: "I think we"re really in the race. I think it"s anybody"s game."
However, Oscars consultant Gabriel Rossman, a highbrow of sociology at UCLA, said: "Inglourious Basterds competence have a couple of fans but additionally a lot of people who hatred it. This is the kind of movie that the new complement is written to exclude."
The initial people to know, either Tarantino managed to win over the dual favourites, will be PricewaterhouseCoopers auditors Rick Rosas and Brad Oltmanns who will control the difficult equate in a windowless room at a tip location.
They will apart the 5,777 paper ballots in to 10 piles and afterwards proceed the routine of reallocating second choices until one movie reaches the sorcery figure of 2,889.
Mr Rosas pronounced he believed the new complement should safeguard the majority renouned movie wins.
He said: "The key is to have the top series of first-place votes. That will regularly be the box given that gives you the top luck of winning."
