REFILE-PREVIEW-Japan Q4 GDP seen +1.0pct q/q+4.1 pct annualised

Thu Mar 4, 2010 5:32am EST Related News TABLE-Japan Q4 corporate capex down 17.3 pct yr/yrWed, Mar 3 2010Japan GDP grows as capital spending revivesSun, Feb 14 2010

(Corrects third bullet point to add comparison period andinitial GDP estimate) (For more stories on the Japanese economy, click [ID:nECONJP]) * WHAT: Japan revised fourth-quarter GDP * WHEN: 8:50 a.m., March 11 (2350 GMT, March 10) * REUTERS FORECAST: Median +1.0 pct qtr/qtr vs initialestimate +1.1 pct qtr/qtr By Akiko Takeda TOKYO, March 4 (Reuters) - The Japanese economy likely grewslightly less in October-December than the government"s initialestimate due to a slower recovery in capital spending, a Reuterspoll of economists showed on Thursday. Gross domestic product (GDP) for the fourth quarter likelyrose 1.0 pct, down from a preliminary 1.1 percent, based on themedian estimate of economists polled after the Ministry ofFinance said the fall in Japanese companies" spending on plantand equipment slowed in that quarter. On an annualised basis, the median forecast of 23 economistspolled is for a revised 4.1 percent expansion in the economy,dwon from 4.6 percent in preliminary data released on Feb 15. The data may provide little comfort to the government,though, which faces waning public support due to politicalfunding scandals before upper house elections expected in July. "Capital spending has been disappointingly slow to recover.Companies will remain cautious at least until the end of thisfinancial year (in March)," said Takumi Tsunoda, senior economistat Shinkin Central Bank. Economists expect capital spending to be revised down to arise of 0.3 percent from a preliminary estimate of 1.0 percent,which was first rise in seven quarters. In the MOF survey published on Thursday, capital spending forcompanies of all categories fell 17.3 percent in October-Decemberfrom a year earlier, slower than a 24.8 percent annual decline inJuly-September. [JPBUSX=ECI] Japan pulled out of recession in April-June, helped by arebound in exports and industrial output as well as a rise inconsumption on the back of the government"s stimulus package. But economists expect growth to slow early this year, as theboost from the government"s stimulus package will peter out. "We expect the economy to hit a soft patch in the early halfof this year. Because wages are not growing, consumption will notgrow. The economy won"t have an engine," said Tsunoda of ShinkinAsset. Following are economists" forecasts for the revisedOctober-December GDP data: ---------------------------------------------------------------- OCT-DEC CAPEX INVENTORY GDP GDP CONTRIB ANNUALISED---------------------------------------------------------------- median 0.3 0.1 1.0 4.1 high 1.3 0.3 1.2 4.9 low -1.1 -0.2 0.7 3.0 ---------------------------------------------------------------- BNP Paribas 0.3 -0.2 0.7 3.0 Mitsubishi Research -0.4 0.0 0.9 3.5 Deutsche Securities -0.9 n/a 0.9 3.6 Credit Agricole CIB 0.3 0.0 0.9 3.8 Japan Research -0.1 0.0 0.9 3.8 Nomura Securities 0.9 -0.1 0.9 3.8 RBS -0.2 0.1 1.0 3.9 Itochu Corp. 0.6 0.0 1.0 3.9 Citigroup -1.1 0.2 1.0 3.9 Barclays Capital 0.1 0.1 1.0 4.0 JP Morgan -0.3 0.1 1.0 4.1 Daiwa SB Investments 0.3 0.0 1.0 4.1 Shinkin Central Bank -0.2 0.1 1.0 4.1 Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance 0.2 0.1 1.0 4.2 Mitsubishi UFJ Sec -0.3 0.2 1.0 4.2 NLI Research 1.3 -0.1 1.1 4.3 Daiwa Research 0.5 0.1 1.1 4.4 Informa Global Markets 0.5 0.1 1.1 4.4 Norinchukin Research 0.6 0.1 1.1 4.4 Monex 0.7 0.1 1.1 4.5 Daiichi Life Research 0.7 0.1 1.1 4.5 Nikko Cordial Securities 0.6 0.2 1.2 4.8 Sumitomo Mitsui AM 0.7 0.3 1.2 4.9 ---------------------------------------------------------------- (Writing by Hideyuki Sano; Editing by Hugh Lawson)

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