By Tim Robey Published: 11:17AM GMT 04 March 2010
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Link to this videoTelegraph critics" predictions: David Gritten | Sukhdev Sandhu | Tim Robey
For all thats altered in the 2010 Oscar foe - a startling amount, starting with ten Best Picture contenders - a lot of things have stayed the same. It wouldnt be awards deteriorate but the cosy faith of a Best Actress assignment for Meryl Streep. Heads would hurl at Pixar if they didnt dip Best Animated Feature nonetheless again. And there are slight citations all over the behaving races - Morgan Freeman, Penlope Cruz, Helen Mirren - that appear utterly there to remind us theyve won before.
Ready for the Oscars Oscar predictions 2010: Sukhdev Sandhu Oscar predictions 2010: Tim Robey Oscar predictions 2010: David Gritten Up v Up In The Air Precious v The Blind SideWhat has altered is the maths. Voters not usually have ten Best Pictures to select from, but contingency arrange them in order. This is the "preferential" choosing by cast of characters votes system, introduced specifically to forestall anything winning with a small 11% of the vote. Hypothetically, if it came down to a parsimonious call between, say, A Serious Man and The Blind Side - it unequivocally wouldnt - their second, or third, or fourth placings competence confirm the issue.
In practice, this might equate opposite the favoured front-runner Avatar, utterly if certain Academy factions confirm theyre fed up of the blue people, and opinion opposite Cameron by ranking his movie last. The Hurt Locker might not utterly be a exile favourite, but it stands a utilitarian possibility of being a lot of peoples second choice.
Weve been speedy to pleasantness this title quarrel as the classic David-vs-Goliath contest, that equates to uneasily cast of characters The Hurt Locker as the heroic eccentric loser and Avatar as simply the big, foolish college of music behemoth. This is only wrong, and entirely dubious in conditions of the drive-in theatre overlapping genres and technical virtuosity - both, if were profitable attention, have receptive to advice modifying to kill for. It additionally neglects the point that Cameron and Bigelow were once assimilated at the hip professionally as well as matrimonially. Without doubt, theyre filmmakers of a closely associated stripe.
Whats loyal is that the campaigns the dual drive-in theatre waged to get here could frequency have been some-more divergent. Way behind in June, The Hurt Locker non-stop in the US to glorious reviews and crushingly small box office. Its takings mount at a insignificant $12m, that by majority calculations would have it the lowest-grossing movie ever to win Best Picture. Avatar, of course, would be the highest, violence even Camerons Titanic record. It non-stop in late December, to a far some-more eager accepting than any one had predicted, and stratospheric business, the multiple of that now propelled it to the front of the race. Meanwhile, The Hurt Locker has had to cling to in there, buoyed mostly by word of mouth, whilst alternative ostensible standing heavyweights such as Nine, Invictus and The Lovely Bones have crashed and burned, withdrawal an ever wider berth for it to take up as Camerons brainy competition. In the process, it has gained lots of new fans. But will they outnumber Avatars fans?
In one sense, the Academy will be foresaking all the common follow-the-money impulses if electorate plump for a unanimously acclaimed melodramatic wave over a megabudget epic thats been successful over the studios wildest dreams.
Then again, a scholarship novella goods blockbuster has never taken Best Picture either, so yes or no wins, theyre creation news.
Odd to think that Up in the Air and Precious, that arguably appearance as well early, were ostensible to be heading the assign a couple of months ago - at this stage, they might have to console themselves with only an Adapted Screenplay drum and a sure-fire win for MoNique. The canniest personification of the Oscar diversion was pleasantness of Fox Searchlight, that plucked Crazy Heart probably from the balderdash store on noticing a cavity in the Best Actor race, handing Jeff Bridges his esteem probably on a plate, and concealment Maggie Gyllenhaal her initial assignment in to the bargain. Meanwhile, Tarantinos Inglorious Basterds has hovered in the wings all season, as well divisive a tender to get out in front, but great for eight tasty nominations and a certain esteem for Christoph Waltz. In the face of these certain things, weve longed for a small disharmony and novelty, that were delivered the second The Blind Side was review out as a Best Picture nominee, securing Sandra Bullocks from-nowhere standing as the heading woman to beat. Academy Award leader Sandra Bullock? Its a somewhat uncertain prospect, but a fun one.
